CNN-IBN’s article on the race for India’s Prime Ministerial post (http://ibnlive.in.com/news/advani-manmohan-lead-race-for-indias-pm/87709-37.html) is an interesting one, and makes for an interesting debate.
The Big Two are the ones who dominate the front page headlines even now, the current Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh along with the current Leader of the Opposition, L.K. Advani. The incumbent is a politician better known for his time as the Finance Minister during P.V Narsimaha Rao’s tenure, where his package of liberalization, privatization and globalization greatly rescued the ailing Indian economy (circa 1991) and laid the foundations for its current achievements. Yet his nomination as the Prime Minister in 2004 by Sonia Gandhi was largely met with skepticism regarding his political ambitions, many believed it was a ploy by Sonia Gandhi to win the peoples hearts, whereas still maintaining power via this ‘puppet’. Dr. Singh, to his credit, has proved tougher that many initially thought; the victory in the No-Confidence Motion following the withdrawal of the Left as well some harsh personal remarks have deterred the ‘puppet’ image to some extent. Yet many critics remain unconvinced about his power within the Congress, leave alone the UPA, and feel that nothing will ever be done against the will of Rajiv Gandhi’s widow. Of course, doubts remain about his health whether he will be fit to carry on for another term, but more important public support for him as the Prime Minister is a doubt. While universally respected, many feel he is the ideal choice for being the Finance Minister. The fact remains that Manmohan Singh as never won a Lok Sabha seat in his entire life, and continues to look like an economist in a politicians seat.
Advani on the other hand, does not face these problems, but instead counters other issues. Historically, the BJPs No. 2 man, after Vajpayee, Advani has also struggled to assert his dominance over the party. His Hindutva hardliner status alienates him from some portion of the party’s support and age is an even bigger factor for him. But the most significant point is that the BJP under Advani is less likely to attract lies, than when it was under Vajpayee. Historical supporters like Jayalalithaa, Omar Abdullah and Ram Vilas Paswan have left the BJP in the Advani-years and hence, his capability as a statesman can be doubted.
Apart from these two contenders, name that seem to sprout up include Mayawati, Sharad Pawar, Rahul Gandhi, Narendra Modi, and Pranab Mukherjee. Sonia Gandhi would hardly be considered the post, as it clearly seems as she does not want it. Of course if the UPA does win the elections, there would be no stopping her if she decided to change her mind.
Mayawati, is a far more interesting case. Her rise to power has been dramatic, with her party (Bahujan Samaj Party) being able to capture India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh. The BSP has gone from being a small, no hope party to one of the the newest and most dynamic ones. Unfortunately for many educated Indians, the party represents a lot that is wrong about India, particularly the caste based politics. Mayawati takes identity politics to a whole other level, campaigning as a ‘daughter of a Dalit’. The Dalits, formerly untouchables, have hardly enjoyed equal rights in the nation even after independence. Political inequality has often simply been a ‘pipe dream’ for them, and Mayawati has exploited this fact to mobilize the masses. While traditionally low in in power, this pool has strong numbers, which makes for good electoral arithmetic. Many of the educated English speaking middle class are quite against Mayawati, and cite her numerous allegations of corruption as reasons why a politician like her should not be trusted. But in a parliamentary democracy, the will of the people is what works. And even if she alienates the English speaking class, her vote bank might just have enough to take her past the finish line. Rumours also persist that she would be the face of a non-Congress and non-BJP government, i.e. the Third Front. On a personal note, someone of high repute in this field staked his reputation on the fact that by 2015, Mayawati will be India’s Prime Minister. I would put my money on him.
Mayawati, unlike many of her contemporaries, has time on her side and is part of a party that is growing annually, and not shrinking from past glories. Year by year, she has steadily been growing in political importance. The BSP’s electoral symbol of an elephant might just prove to be representative of its weight in the political arena. GE 2009, isnt a do-or-die for Mayawati. She can play her cards right, and set up alliances in such a way, that at the time of GE 2014, she has much better odds. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
The list of other candidates can be studied now, by first looking at Sharad Pawar. The leader of the NCP has acquired a reputation of being a political heavyweight, one who many coalitions look towards getting support from. Rumours also persist that he is adamant on getting the PM seat, and he would mostly likely pursue this ambition in a Deve Gowda-esque way, where he would try his luck even with his party securing a few seats in the Lok Sabha. (Deve Gowda barely got a dozen seats with his Janata Dal, but was able to become leader of the United Front) Pawar plays his Maharashtrian Identity card perhaps a bit too strongly; as the Director of the Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Research Foundation Tarun Vijay states ‘We need an Indian Prime Minister, not a Maharashtrian one’.
Rahul Gandhi’s mention as a candidate is more often made by political novices, who assume that his surname automatically qualifies him to be the country’s leader. While it is hard to completely dismiss that logic, India definitely has moved ahead of the times where it would simply bow down to a dynastic pattern. The fact of the matter is that Rahul Gandhi himself is a political novice, who was not proved himself, as being able to take his own party by the helm, leave alone the country. Rajiv Gandhi’s son is greatly influenced by his mother, and even though she may have Prime Ministerial ambitions for him, it is unlikely she will want them to be completed in 2009.
Narendra Modi’s handling of Gujarat, has lead to many voicing their desire for him to be promoted from state level to the national level. His hardline attitude towards Muslims, wins him some support from some Hindus, but real merit points include his administration’s excellent track record of economic growth, quick reaction to the earthquake and strong anti-terrorist measures. Modi, however, remains a very controversial figure and it would be highly unlikely whether the BJP would turn towards him at this point.
Lastly, the growing stature of the Minister of External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee has led many to earmark him as the Dark Horse. He is one of the few Cabinet Ministers whose stock has actually risen during the UPA’s term. The Editor-in-Chief of Outlook, Vinod Mehta, offers an interesting opinion: ‘He (Mukherjee) is the diwan to the king, but the diwan can never be made the king’.
But the beauty of Indian Politics (Representative Parliamentary Democracy) allows almost anyone to become the Prime Minister, the only criteria to be satisfied being that the party / coalition in power must anoint him / her as their leader. This is what leaves the door open to all possibilities. Who knows? We might be in for a real shocker.
Modern Indian Politics
